Avalanche Are Good Enough to Win Without Quality Goaltending

Georgiev rebounded for Game 2, as he stopped 28 of 30 in a 5-2 victory on the road. It marked just the second time in his last eight starts that he has allowed less than four goals, with the Avalanche winning just three of those games. Despite averaging a league-best 3.68 goals-per-game during the regular season, their usually-dominant offense had begun to falter and with 15 other strong playoff teams, seven of which finished ahead of Colorado in the standings, their high-scoring playing style likely would not be enough of a safety blanket to continue to receive subpar goaltending.

Post-Stanley Cup Goaltending Issues

Goaltending has been a long-standing issue for the Avalanche. They’ve deployed several goalies since the departure of Darcy Kuemper following their 2022 Stanley Cup victory — Georgiev, Justus Annunen, Ivan Prosvetov, and the recently retired Pavel Francouz, to name a few. While their high-flying offense has allowed them to experiment with their goalies without having to heavily rely on a single one, the result of Game 1 showed reason for concern amongst the Avalanche fanbase.

Colorado has retained 11 players from their Stanley Cup-winning squad in 2022, including six of their top eight playoff scorers (minus captain Gabriel Landeskog and since-departed Nazem Kadri). They possess an entirely different goalie tandem from the 2022 Kuemper/Francouz duo with Georgiev and Annunen. While Kuemper provided the team with average-level goaltending during their Stanley Cup run, he performed admirably compared to Georgiev’s regular season. While Kuemper posted a shining 2.54 goals-against average (GAA) and a .921 SV% during the regular season, his save percentage dipped singificantly to just .902 during the playoffs — yet the Avalanche still won the Cup.

Can Their Offense Lead the Charge?

During the 2022 Playoffs, the Avalanche scored at least four goals on 12 different occasions, losing just one of those games (a 5-4 overtime loss in Game 5 against the St. Louis Blues). They won all eight games in which they scored at least five goals — accounting for half of their total wins. Despite the average-at-best goaltending from Kuemper, they only conceded three or more goals in 45 percent of their playoff games (nine of 20). This can be largely attributed to the dominance of the Avalanche team in front of him — they averaged just under 40 shots on goal per game, while their opponents averaged 27.9. Other than forward J.T. Compher and defenseman Sam Girard posting a minus-1 rating each, and Alex Newhook possessing an even rating, every single Avalanche skater who received ice time during the 2022 Playoffs posted a plus rating — emphasizing the sheer dominance of this Colorado team that swept two of four opponents and lost a total of just four games.

Several recent Stanley Cup winners have been elevated by stellar goaltending, such as Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning (2020 and 2021), Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues (2019), and Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins (2016 and 2017). Of these netminders, Binnington posted the lowest SV% at .914. In fact, of the last 10 Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders, both Kuemper’s entire playoff mark of .902 and his Stanley Cup Final mark of .908 rank as the lowest.

Georgiev Must Provide League-Average Goaltending

While this calibre of goaltending is passable (league-average SV% was .907 in 2021-22), it served as a new benchmark for the threshold of a goaltender’s play in order to capture a Stanley Cup. Georgiev’s regular season and postseason play thus far have left a lot to be desired, even when compared to Kuemper’s 2022 Playoffs. He won a league-best 40 games last season, and followed it up with a league-best 38 wins this season despite his below-average .897 SV%. He was able to skate by and win consistently due to the Avs’ top-tier offense, despite allowing four or more goals in 25 games during the regular season — which equates to 40 percent of his appearances. The Avalanche will need him to play to the level of the three-year, $10.2 million contract he signed in July 2022 if they aspire to repeat their dominance from the 2022 Playoffs, or at least to the level in which Kuemper provided them with during their most recent Stanley Cup victory.

As they are currently deadlocked in an even 1-1 split with Winnipeg, they must find a productive balance of ways to consistently beat Vezina Trophy favorite Hellebuyck and support for their offense with passable goaltending. They have limited their opponent to an average of 26.5 shots on goal through the first two games of the 2024 Playoffs — an even lower mark than their Stanley Cup team — and will need to continue to do so in order to have a fighting chance should Georgiev continue to underperform.