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Keaton Winn. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Giants vs. Marlins pick, odds, predictions for Wed. 4/17

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated 4/16/24

Keaton Winn was a nice addition to the staff of the San Francisco Giants, and he might be carving himself out a space for the future. Winn has done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and getting hitters to chase.

His opponent Tuesday will be the Miami Marlins and A.J. Puk, who has not had the same success as Winn early in the season. Puk has an abhorrent walk rate and has not pitched deeply into games.

San Francisco has done well off lefties, despite a poor start to their record. Obviously, they do not want to fall far behind the rest of the NL West.

But since the Giants have fared well against lefties, Puk is the perfect pitcher for them to face in this matchup. Let's take a closer look at Tuesday's matchup in our Giants vs. Marlins preview.

Giants vs. Marlins Odds

Wednesday, April 17, 12:10 p.m. ET, BSFL

Giants Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +142	8.5 -105o / -115u	-118

Marlins Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -172	8.5 -105o / -115u	+100

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

San Francisco Giants

Winn has been tremendous at inducing grounders. His chase rate has been great as well, ranking in the 82nd percentile. He has allowed some hard contact, ranking in the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate. And while has not excelled with strikeouts, he should in the future considering his chase rate.

Winn only struck out one batter across six innings in his second start of the season, but he notched six strikeouts apiece in each of his other starts. Adding on, he went at least five innings in all three starts, which should reduce the strain on the Giants’ bullpen.

The Giants have actually done well when facing a lefty, owning a 120 wRC+ and 16.6% strikeout rate against left-handers. Jorge Soler has struggled thus far off lefties, but historically he has hit well off them. Otherwise, the Giants have seven batters over a .330 xwOBA against lefties, so Puk might be the ideal opponent.

In relief, the Giants have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Since Winn has shown his ability to pitch past the fifth inning, he should be able to help out the relief staff. As a result, he can hand the ball to the anchors of the bullpen in Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval.

Miami Marlins

Puk has been awful this season. He has 14 walks against eight strikeouts. Yes, he can prevent opponents from hitting the ball hard, but this will not bode well against a team that already trounces left-handers. In addition, Puk has not pitched through five innings yet, which won't help the Marlins' relief staff and could provide a boost to the Giants once more.

The Marlins have not done a good job in general at the dish, and now Jake Burger is injured. Off righties, Miami has five other bats above a .330 xwOBA, but the bottom of the order has been awful. They have a 23.5% strikeout rate and an 86 wRC+ off righties, so Winn should be primed for a solid start with a below-average lineup against him.

The Marlins' relief staff has definitely taken a step back since last season. Bryan Hoeing has been great with 11 2/3 innings pitched and a sub-4.00 xFIP. He could loom large on the back of a Puk start. Otherwise, they have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Sure, this is comparable to the Giants, but the starter simply will not go as deep into this game for Miami.

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Giants vs. Marlins

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Giants facing a lefty might produce the win they sorely need. Winn has shown he can be better than Puk, the Giants have some pop against lefties and Burger being injured is the cherry on top of a poor start to the season for the Marlins.

Take San Francisco in this game to -135.