I broke out my inaugural CoW (Chance of Winning) forecast board to look at the Pac-10's last big test day against out-of-conference majors. Unless the Pac has a good showing Tuesday, their chances for more than a few teams in the dance come March are pretty weak. Here's some things to watch for tomorrow.
Texas A&M @ (21) UW - CoW: 80%
UW is coming off its best game of the season, especially in terms of turnovers, giving the ball away only 11 times instead of their usual 20-plus. This was mostly a result of G Isiah Thomas looking to dish at the end of his dash instead of throwing it up among the trees. The Huskies also hit their threes, showing they might have a little outside shooting after all. If UW holds onto the ball and can make a few outside shots, they should be able to sprint past A&M.
LSU @ WSU - CoW: 70%
LSU is terrible and already got walloped by Arizona State. Washington State is already a darkhorse for the tourney but need this win or it's goodbye dance card. The Cougs should have the firepower to down the low-scoring LSU squad.
Stanford @ (20) TexasTech - CoW: 40%
I'm being generous here because the Pac-10 really needs this win and Stanford has played tough against some big boys so far this season. The Cardinal problem in Palo Alto, though, is finishing games, dropping 3 of 4 tight finishes (one to #3 Kentucky in OT). Since Tech looked so cool against Washington in an earlier overtime win, you gotta give the nod to the Red Raiders here if it's close.
Cal @ (1) Kansas - CoW: 10%
This would normally be 0% but if the Golden Bears can somehow keep it competitive and hit some big shots down the stretch and Kansas has a dismal shooting day in their own gym and Dick Vitale loses his voice ... then maybe the Pac-10 gets some cred. Don't count on it.